When they outright fail as Thursday's did, it is worth taking notice as that is very rare - rare enough to remember the last one. Today also made a valid bottom, except this one appears to have held. Thursday's bottom has some disciplined folks stuck; now whether they are stuck at the LOD 1206.5 or the confirmation stomp at 1209 is yet to be seen.
This will be cool to rip into 1209 to allow those disciplined folks a way out, should they choose to take it. The where I'm wrong (stop) scenario is 1213 gap fill. How do you describe a floor? On Thursday, 1209 was the spot where, every time below, the action got very fast and twitchy. Some other description maybe makes better sense - alive, under there. Then in the AH, it stomped the floor. But on Friday, a tick under screwed it up.
Just saying, if the market decides to go direct up and let these guys out at 1209, its a great entry for the remainder of the ride - down. Disciplined folks bought a beautiful bottom at 1209 but have since realized the systemic issues in Europe are a bigger force than they can oppose. They still have enough power to rip the market immediately to pick up their fallen. They have before and they will again.
This all sounds lunacy until you see it:)
